Nobody ever says 'this programme has failed' until it's undeniable. Before that, there are months of amber RAG statuses, 'recovery plans', and optimistic re-forecasts. The real indicators of failure are subtler — and they show up much earlier.
Five early warning signs
The programme board hasn't said 'no' to anything. Scope keeps growing but the budget and timeline don't move. The SRO hasn't attended the last two board meetings. Decisions are being revisited. And the team is spending more time reporting than delivering.
Any one of these is a concern. Three or more together and you have a programme that's already in trouble — whether anyone has admitted it or not.
What to do when you see the signs
Commission an independent Transformation Audit. Not a full programme review — a rapid, honest diagnostic that tells you whether the programme can be recovered, needs to be reset, or should be stopped. The cost of the audit is trivial compared to the cost of continuing something that isn't working.